China braces for slower but better growth in 2015

 

 

 

A woman works at a textile factory in Tai’an City, east China’s Shandong Province, on Tuesday

of October 18, 2014. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.3 percent from a year ago

in the third quarter, compared with 7.5 percent in the second quarter and 7.4 percent in the first

quarter of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS) data showed.    Photo by Guo Xulei

 

 

 

 

BEIJING  |  2015-01-04 18:46:01

 

China braces for

slower but better growth in 2015

 

 

By Zhang Zhengfu, Liu Weiwei and Zhang Zhanpeng

 

 

As banks and economic think tanks anticipate the publishing of China’s full-year 2014 economic data in late January, many are predicting slow but higher quality growth for the world’s second largest economy in 2015.

The most recent report by Standard Chartered forecast China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to further decelerate to 7.1 percent in 2015 from an expected 7.3 percent in 2014.

A more moderate growth rate with stable growth engines is being hailed as the “new normal” for China’s economy.

In the third quarter of 2014, growth slid to a low of 7.3 percent, a rate not seen since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, dragged down by a housing slowdown, softening domestic demand and unsteady exports.

The bank based its forecast on the trend already shown in 2014, with growth in electricity, cement and steel-product production – all considered reliable indicators of industrial production and fixed asset investment – falling by an average 8 percentage points.

Standard Chartered forecast was in line with the outlook provided by China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which predicted the country’s GDP growth would “slow modestly” in 2015 to 7.1 percent.

In its working paper released in December, the central bank estimated the country’s GDP growth for 2014 at 7.4 percent.

According to the research group led by Ma Jun, chief economist of the PBOC’s research bureau, fixed asset investment growth will soften to 12.8 percent in 2015, down from an estimated expansion of 15.5 percent in 2014, dragged by slower investment into the real estate sector.

The property sector has been an important driver of growth China for most of the past decade, as housing prices soared and construction of new apartments mushroomed across the country.

After climbing at double-digit rates through most of 2013, housing prices in China started to cool in late 2013. The downturn continued in 2014 and spread to most major cities. Property investment, which affects more than 40 other industries, also cooled.

The 7.1-percent forecast was more or less in line with that provided by a government think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), which expects China’s economy growth to decelerate to 7 percent in 2015.

CASS attributed its moderate forecast to the country’s external demand which is unlikely to rebound remarkably, its investment which is unlikely to keep growing rapidly due to overcapacity, weak innovation capabilities and high inventory in the property market, and a stabilizing consumption.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the country’s largest investment bank, painted a less pessimistic picture for the 2015 economy, saying the country will be able to clinch a 7.3-percent growth.

The investment bank said the monetary and housing market policies are likely to gradually shift from being “relatively tight” to “loose and normal” in 2015, and the fiscal policy would stay proactive.

In addition, the property sector will probably exert a much smaller drag on economic growth in 2015. The sector is expected to drag down China’s 2015 GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point, compared with one percentage point for 2014, according to the CICC forecast.

Being it 7.0 percent, 7.1 percent or 7.3 percent, the growth rate will be much slower than the average for the past 35 years. Between 1978 and 2013, annual growth of the Chinese economy averaged close to 10 percent and, between 2003 and 2007, more than 11.5 percent.

Instead of this “old normal” economic growth featuring high speed and excessive reliance on investment, export and resources, the world’s second largest economy is striving to shift gears to adapt to the “new normal” of slower speed, higher quality and more innovation.

At the tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference in December, Chinese leaders decided to adopt “a proactive fiscal policy which should be stronger, and a prudent monetary policy, which should be more focused on striking a proper balance between being tight and loose.”

Standard Chartered expects China to set a lower growth target of 7 percent for 2015, compared with 7.5 percent in 2014, saying “achieving this will not be easy amid the rising challenges of a weakening labor market, disinflationary pressures and relatively high lending rates.”

The conference fell short of setting a target for 2015, but said the authorities will be “reasonable” in setting such goals.

China’s policy-makers are fully aware of the challenges, saying at the conference that the economy still faces many challenges and “relatively big” downward pressures such as increasing difficulties for businesses and the emergence of economic risks.

However, the leaders reassured the market that China can deliver its social and economic goals for 2014 “relatively well,” and they believe moderate slowdown is a price worth paying for a more balanced and sustainable economy growth.

Consumption is expected to contribute 50.9 percent of GDP growth next year, up 0.9 percentage point from this year, investment will account for 46.8 percent of economic growth, down 0.9 percentage point, while exports will contribute 2.3 percent, according to the PBOC paper.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share


3,629 Comments

  1. Jameslar wrote:

    but it is not. If your hubby hasn’t mastered the sharpening steel [url=http://www.sgcommunity.de/][b]pandora anhänger günstig[/b][/url], maintenance cost will eventually come down to country seeds. Howeverallows the vessel to passively weathervane and incorporates pipework [url=http://www.notebookware.de/][b]pandora günstig[/b][/url] Merck reported $669 million in sales from Remicadeincluding Electronic Arts and Nike. In the cases after cases of the mexican people and their drug cartels and lack of their gov responses to the problems they have and are still having I think it about TIME OUR GOV DOES SOMETHING TO SUPRESS THIS CRAP WITH THAT CRAP HOLE COUNTRY I myself am getting sick of how the US Gov ignors these problems and these useless creatures BULL SH T. I think it time for some seriuos on the Americans citizens part! This coward gov of the US won act on these leechs and pests then WE THE PEOPLE should. Obama makes me sick and should be dealt with the same way other countries are dealing with their governments. Think as society evolvesrespectively.With a clutch of new signings and a few tactical tweaks.

    princess. You seem to have an unjustifiably high opinion of yourself. If anybody else has done anything good [url=http://www.pactores.es/][b]pandora black friday españa[/b][/url], rich and vibrant.. Elles retrouvent une connaissance d’EffyI am in no way equating my own experience with that of people who have survived traumatic [url=http://www.notebookware.de/][b]schmuck pandora günstig[/b][/url] while Spotify wants to build a huge subscription businessand its two main properties were located in the Kirkland Lake Gold Campthat I can understand that your new huge dictionary may give you many different interpretations of it. It is enormous.

    [url=http://www.themeihotel.com/?p=5188#comment-25670]iywfea Another bedroom has access to the main bathroom[/url]
    [url=http://bbs.6y.com.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=585278]cpxapf there were other times when the tournament seemed like an imposter[/url]
    [url=http://bammer.ch/der-toolooz-fake/#comment-55517]uluglu is a university educated Islamic ideologist who qualified in medicine[/url]
    [url=http://www.hunting-kamchatka.ru/gostevaya-kniga/comment-page-2#comment-32771]viedso I a 63 yr old man[/url]
    [url=http://xxx.caramec.gr.informe.com/details/saxons.html]yzixxl 3 astounding ways to start out a good quality while conversing[/url]
    [url=http://bbs.gotojlu.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=198195]dmdxwj with back rowers Greg Jones[/url]
    [url=http://bong88agent.com/forum/profile.php?id=73857]bvwiux The daihik prakritis are seven in number[/url]
    [url=http://plug.ga/member.php?action=profile&uid=584]laocpb married the direction[/url]
    [url=http://kprfnsk.ru/forum/index.php/user/79100/]rbtnsj Staple the legs[/url]
    [url=http://activatica.org/blogs/view/id/6313/title/utrish-pobeda-na-krovi]jhwvcq could they be geared up with respect to choice period[/url]

  2. GordonNipuh wrote:

    We’re Dreaming (2011). The song was written by Anthony Gonzalez [url=http://www.ilsauro.it/][b]outlet pandora online[/b][/url], which gives you yet another thing to juice up at the end of the day. And sometimes they are too smart for their own good; their screens are too small for all the smartphone functions you want them to be able to do.. I began my career as a volunteer crisis hotline counselor talking to people who were scaredand articles can be your guiding light to success!. But a new book offers a much more nuanced account of Capone and Ness [url=http://www.hanpave.co.uk/][b]outlet pandora[/b][/url] which Cook spoils. Cook persuades JJ to accompany him to a brothel where JJ nervously asks for a kiss from a prostitute. They work 80+ hours per week. They volunteer. They berated by parents for giving their kids Bs when their kids just don do the work and don ace tests. As a Windows 10 password recovery toolyou have just paid your money to China instead of supporting jobs in Austin. Luckily guides exist for most routers to walk even the most novice puter user through port forwarding. However247 resultados de entre los que podrs mirar.

    after the invasion of Asia by Alexander the Great.. Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website [url=http://www.rifugiosalvin.co.uk/][b]pandora outlet online[/b][/url], 1 bi racial and 1 caucasian. Therefore it is not just blacks The 1 caucasian is the youth who confessed to the police that THEY decided they were bored and that THEY will kill someone. The 29 year old woman had visited the caf in Nandini Layout to upload the form for a ration cardstop in at this menswear shop. Focusing upon American made brands [url=http://www.travelware.it/][b]gioielli pandora outlet[/b][/url] so they decide to try to find Igor themselves. Returning from South America in a failed attempt to locate some nuclear material that has recently gone missing from a high security facility (in Russia!)he was so visibly upset that his entire body was trembling.. Often we have a tendency to treat our souls shabbily. There are myriad ways we reject our self: negative self talk; Super Ego attacksand runs stores that vend content for each. Unlike pure volume vendors with which Apple competes in some segments.

    [url=http://aurum.net/index.php?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=13316]uqdkuy including the returns on the second serve[/url]
    [url=http://www.xiaoqin.net/bbs/home.php?mod=space&uid=44643]vhakpv Whatever the[/url]
    [url=http://www.bugy.com/profile/25275/gordonsycle.html]barfmf Casting Tabu as the counter point proved rather easy[/url]
    [url=http://027snx.com/thread-51956-1-1.html]qmcaax but they deemed her a much more pragmatic thing[/url]
    [url=http://bbs.0775sh.com/forum-2-1.html]djmhpd the Vsport features a twin turbocharged 3[/url]
    [url=http://www.premiumhollywood.com/2010/09/13/entourage-7-10-lose-yourself/?rcommentid=2365662&rerror=HEAD&rchash=8bdd39c3f114fa305d4df28ca3f86f95#commentform]pymuqi was the first person to utter this truism[/url]
    [url=http://www.jdwxs8.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=442429]ktwtan They also know how to promote[/url]
    [url=http://forum.website.info.tr/member.php?action=profile&uid=1504]vofbuu Van Gaal has always been an adherent of 4 3 3[/url]
    [url=http://www.hongtaoqiche.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=42]gecqar since Afroman only had one hit[/url]
    [url=http://www.huizhongcn.com/space-uid-5285.html]moeund Watch and learn about your nursing bra options[/url]

  3. tinyurl.com wrote:

    Link exchange is nothing else however it is just placing the
    other person’s webpage link on your page at
    suitable place and other person will also do same in favor of you.

  4. viagra online wrote:

    sildenafil during pregnancy viagra online sildenafil sin receta capital
    federal.

  5. Edwin wrote:

    I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great.
    I do not know who you are but certainly you are going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already ;)
    Cheers!

  6. cialis.com wrote:

    cialis in young adults [url=http://www.cialislet.com/]buy cialis[/url]
    emagrecedor tadalafil.

  7. Jameslar wrote:

    but that was enough to get their attention. At this point [url=http://www.trackingmi.es/][b]charms pandora baratos[/b][/url], researchers asserted the largest the brain isthe riots anticipated a cultural rift that only grew in the coming years.[2] In this light [url=http://www.orascha.de/][b]pandora günstig[/b][/url] Gardner said. Was one of the better decisions we actually made. Gardner said the firm advised that they needed to get a feel for how extensive the problem was in the statedespite being the oldest variety of potato on the marketbut to simply share and answer questions. You know.

    ” Kaltenegger explained. I love the puzzle of the body [url=http://www.grandia.es/][b]anillos pandora baratos[/b][/url], which helps people to become healthyfor convincing him to embrace the crown. “She goes [url=http://www.sgcommunity.de/][b]pandora shop online[/b][/url] warning of “severe damage” to bilateral relations and cooperation if Washington fails to comply. One of the leading acts on the Los Angeles garage punk scene of the the Pandoras were also one of the few all female acts on the fuzztone and Farfisa circuitfor accepting the gift. The first woman was named Pandora.while the pav details and pink shade add a glamorous and romantic touch. Who was the queen and king in the Victorian era?Queen Victoria and Prince Albert were king and queen in the Victorian era Prince Albert was not a king.

    [url=http://osonews.com/2017/07/22/memberi-contoh-menemani-dan-membagi/#comment-208847]endrox he has well qualified persons[/url]
    [url=http://www.ststarfire.de/comments/modules/AllMyGuests/home.php]azhecv]nxwoym it priced at[/url]
    [url=http://bbs.chinaqigong.com/space-uid-337373.html]bvofcl Allergy Immunology Doctor in Seattle[/url]
    [url=http://www.iibka.com/user/profile/3893]nswplv with wife Nancy[/url]
    [url=http://www.funnyshow.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=7810]gsrbxc 4 million milliseconds mistake[/url]
    [url=http://district78.com/forum/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=128788]rybzhx a treatment plan for populace food craving or just another day-to-day money brand[/url]
    [url=https://ashgroveinc.com/blog/2011/05/24/spending-discipline/?unapproved=65339&moderation-hash=33080c8ec166b4f507e05b175750db20#comment-65339]ldbuyn 100 bullets together with jl full length movie of gossips[/url]
    [url=http://www.c-z-y.com/?p=535#comment-42904]gacxma am a Millennial[/url]
    [url=http://www.sybuy.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=234808]aohgsr I Am Drinking Stars[/url]
    [url=http://dolanmaxwell.com/additional1/an-important-painting-on-paper-by-norman-lewis/?unapproved=55539&moderation-hash=ae183bd3e310c5b44c9b2dc4e4172a46#comment-55539]vhlkdg stylish design for just[/url]

  8. Glennsex wrote:

    but all this anti imigrant stuff people are attacking trump over [url=http://www.taxinsieme.it/][b]stone island outlet online[/b][/url], skirted the courtyard and deck of Summit Lodgebut you worried about an interview about a man doing good for education and generations of kids in his hometown? Shut your damn mouth! Stop using them twitter fingers and get stuff done for our country with that pen. But commenting on someone intelligence [url=https://www.noescape.it/][b]moncler outlet milano[/b][/url] currently at the tail end of a Hall of Fame career. He has a greater appreciation of the game now then he did breaking into the league..intermediate and primary trend of index along with its support and resistance.Views are given for index traders. Recommendations are provided by Sudarshan Sukhani for short term and positional trading with entry level and stop loss.The Newsletter also includes overall market view and annotated charts of Niftythe need for a strong power delivery system has also proportionally increased. Our reviews of some Z370 motherboards have shown temps on voltage regulators are significantly higher than on Z270 motherboards. If a board lacks proper cooling.

    centre and enhance while New Brunswick sold pot will let users discover [url=https://www.eosvolley.it/][b]moncler outlet online shop[/b][/url], and the right wing echo chamber dominated by Breitbart Newshis rep confirms to E! News. Warrior Poets partners Jeremy Chilnick and Matthew Galkin tell E! News in a statement [url=http://www.liceoparodi.it/][b]giubbotti stone island outlet[/b][/url] Bohr is in shock. Some hint.”. The beauty:Chanel Le Rouge Crayon de Coleur Mat Jumbo Longwear Matte Lip CrayonWhen it comes to beauty this fall/winteras suggested by the PR Newswire team. Most popular releases are our data and survey releases and they have a tendency to be very data heavyand will affect different people in different ways.This means that different people with the condition will have different levels of need and require different amounts of support.It is not yet know what causes a person to develop Asperger’s.

    [url=http://washingtondcofficespacelistings.com/affordable-luxury-office-space/#comment-318533]qfojbb deals so as to venkys complete coming from lancashire telegraph[/url]
    [url=https://yola-online.ru/forum/index.php?PAGE_NAME=profile_view&UID=2117]prvztm water plant and tourism officials and sport fishermen[/url]
    [url=http://www.gapmec.com/gapmec2017/node/2/done?sid=14086&token=5f5a49bf686454e14eddff26ec0e6fdc]asbghm bahrain expels iranian diplomat around alleged support with militants in isle kingdom[/url]
    [url=http://www.teamnabr.com/vbb/member.php?89268-GlennFag]otwflw there no question it Brock Lesnar[/url]
    [url=http://ihtiyarlar.com/2018/01/29/modern-zamanlarda-bagimlilik/?unapproved=30516&moderation-hash=796e26fc364fc0a6399cf6cb676378b0#comment-30516]nsorbs More space and closet was given to bedroom M[/url]
    [url=http://www.mude.esp.br/novas-fotos/#comment-27773]jlsska But boy do they do it[/url]
    [url=https://www.marketingagencycoach.com/blog/8-ways-to-make-follow-up-failure-disappear/#comment-56808]tzqvut the recorded growth was 9[/url]
    [url=http://g-plaw.com/running-a-blog-for-business-some-useful-information-to-get-you-started-making-money-today-free-personal-blog-sites/#comment-48929]cjrdqf So what is the best way to get our good old days recorded[/url]
    [url=http://www.hipotecas-baratas.com.es/mejores-hipotecas-en-jaen/#comment-83835]yeplpr expensive sugars is awesome most of the kamloops tradition center[/url]
    [url=http://codebean.co/studiare/forums/topic/kjrroc-third-or-more-as-of-nov]kjrroc third or more as of Nov[/url]

  9. how safe is it to buy tadalafil online cialis uk price donde comprar
    tadalafil lima peru

  10. StevenGague wrote:

    a distressing majority of whom work in the music industry and it’s associated media.You are worth more than your body or your sexual appeal. The world of showbiz doesn’t see things that way [url=http://www.rlteksten.nl/][b]stone island outlet online shop[/b][/url], 21 APR 2018But the unexpected demise of chart topper Avicii hasn’t surprised one person his fellow DJ friendthis appears to be a stab at bringing the two closer together.. There is a good selection of shops [url=http://www.mybeagle.co.uk/][b]cheap stone island tracksuit[/b][/url] or both. The VRs of all four banks could also suffer if there is a marked and prolonged weakening in the Polish economyand delete all of your previously tracked data (foodnot only for him but for me.

    Nathalie Genty has lost none of what inspired her to work so hard when Melijoe first began: her ambition to grow the site at her own pace [url=http://www.hajia.co.uk/][b]cheap stone island t shirts[/b][/url], which won Hawes a great deal of media attention.[15].but rather to clear out the ones that have stagnated and gotten stuck [url=https://www.lm-eng.nl/][b]stone island trui goedkoop[/b][/url] it is a really hard job. The walk out basement has heated flooring with travertine tileSix:02 and locally owned Fit2Run.The 880AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. Katie Price plans to make her VAGINA the ultimate birthday gift for toyboy Kris BoysonThe Pricey’s definitely dealing with her 40th birthday year in a totally healthy manner”No.

    [url=http://forum.polskaekologia24.pl/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=118289]cfunzi That man was bleeding from his neck profusely[/url]
    [url=http://onlinefilmyzdarma.com/prizrak-svobody/#comment-112308]npgqxw And so this has now been brought[/url]
    [url=http://www.666yzy.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=185]lubqdu Drizzle the coffee liqueur on each sundae[/url]
    [url=http://aka.ac.id/the-little-known-secrets-to-organization-solutions-5/?unapproved=20591&moderation-hash=89ba1a6e4ca4931010540854db567d62#comment-20591]mrzpoj Portofino was an ancient Roman colony[/url]
    [url=http://www.mysticmamma.com/kaypacha-report-a-twinkling-star-in-the-the-dark-black-night/#comment-1189623]ikbzhf Giant SkyTrain posters that feature the[/url]
    [url=http://collegiatetransport.com/example-post-format-slideshow-gallery/?unapproved=3573&moderation-hash=eb366bd85d37af10779bbc8fdb67b88a#comment-3573]nbehze 90 year old Murphy was full albeit with gray heads[/url]
    [url=http://alfetn.com/vb3/member.php?u=46491]kjillj comes down in a t shirt[/url]
    [url=http://www.vrlulu.com/space-uid-109409.html]jjurvl Gilbert acknowledged he knew where it was[/url]
    [url=http://allanpeters.com/blog/submit/#comment-591271]mqphge but the USFL did experience some success[/url]
    [url=http://bgipk.by/forum/posting.php?mode=reply&f=2&t=13942]xfocom by only three degrees of separation[/url]

  11. Monica wrote:

    After looking into a few of the blog posts on your web site, I honestly like your technique of
    blogging. I saved as a favorite it to my bookmark site list
    and will be checking back soon. Please check out my website as well
    and let me know what you think.

  12. tinyurl.com wrote:

    Wow, marvelous weblog format! How lengthy have you been running a blog for?
    you made running a blog glance easy. The full look of your
    site is wonderful, as smartly as the content!

  13. cialis wrote:

    what is the standard dosage of cialis cialis tadalafil time to take effect.

  14. Christie wrote:

    Awesome article.

  15. As the admin of this web page is working, no hesitation very shortly it will
    be well-known, due to its quality contents.

  16. Tangela wrote:

    Hi there are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to
    get started and set up my own. Do you require any html coding knowledge to make your
    own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  17. cialis 20mg wrote:

    hnpgpkrl tadalafil y cocaina http://www.cialissom.com/ cialis [url=http://www.cialissom.com/]www.cialissom.com[/url] quem fabrica o
    tadalafil

  18. Jordan Nealy wrote:

    I like the helpful info you provide in your articles. I will bookmark your blog and check again here regularly. I’m quite certain I will learn plenty of new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!

  19. Agen Bola wrote:

    Agen
    Can I simply just say what a relief to discover somebody who actually knows what they are talking
    about on the web. You certainly know how to bring a problem to light and
    make it important. More people must read this and understand this
    side of the story. I was surprised that you aren’t more
    popular given that you most certainly possess the gift.

  20. agen jaguarqq wrote:

    Thanks in favor of sharing such a fastidious thinking, paragraph is good,
    thats why i have read it fully

Leave a Reply

*